Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Correa reached on infield single to third, Buxton scored on error, Julien to second, Julien safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Garcia.4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 9Julien walked, Kirilloff scored on Stratton wild pitch, Buxton to third on wild pitch by Stratton.3–1
- 9Kirilloff scored, Buxton to third on passed ball by Perez.3–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 43–1
- 9Kirilloff scored on Stratton wild pitch, Buxton to third on wild pitch by Stratton.3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 9Kirilloff scored, Buxton to third on passed ball by Perez.3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Correa doubled to left, Margot scored, Lewis to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Garcia homered to left (398 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Lewis homered to left center (423 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / KC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +49 Elo | MIN 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 33–4828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 9–4 KC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.