Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-4
- Daniel DuartePitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Velázquez homered to left (388 feet).0–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–11
- 3Witt Jr. homered to center (434 feet).0–10
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–10
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 2Fermin grounded into fielder's choice to first first, Velázquez scored, Fermin to first on error by pitcher Funderburk, Frazier out at second.0–9
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 2Frazier singled to left, Melendez scored and Perez scored, Velázquez to second.0–8
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 2Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Garcia homered to left center (422 feet).0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Isbel homered to right (403 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Perez homered to left (390 feet), Witt Jr. scored and Pasquantino scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −4 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +60 Elo | MIN 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 33–4828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 11–4 KC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.