Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4
- Luis CastilloPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crawford grounded out to shortstop, France scored, Rojas to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 35–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Rojas doubled to left, Raleigh scored, France to third.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Freeman hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Kwan reached on bunt single to third, Rocchio scored on throwing error by third baseman Rojas.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Bo Naylor homered to right center (383 feet), Brennan scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Brennan singled to right, Ramírez scored on fielding error by right fielder Haniger, Brennan to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML CLE -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.5 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +3 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +40 Elo | SEA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 306.6 | Runs scored | 3.025th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 3.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+3.4 | Margin | −0.617th of 30 |
| 5th of 183–2 | Road vs home | 3–26th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–1 | 0–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 0–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–4 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.