Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Naylor homered to right center (438 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 6Freeman homered to center (392 feet).3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 4Urías walked, Raleigh scored, Canzone to second, France to third.2–5
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball 42–5
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 32–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike - Pitch Timer Violation 12–4
- 3Giménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Bo Naylor scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 3Kwan grounded into fielder's choice to second, Laureano scored, Rocchio out at second, Bo Naylor to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Canzone homered to center (411 feet), Raleigh scored and France scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2France singled to center, Garver scored, Raleigh to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / SEA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 44.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −12 | CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +36 Elo | SEA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 307.3 | Runs scored | 2.528th of 30 |
| 4th of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 3.57th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+4.5 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 7th of 183–1 | Road vs home | 2–27th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 4–3 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.