Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RossPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers singled to left, Correa scored, Jeffers to second.7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Jeffers homered to left center (376 feet), Correa scored and Castro scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Correa singled to left, Buxton scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Buxton doubled to left, Kirilloff scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Chourio homered to center (402 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Santana grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kirilloff scored, Correa out at second, Buxton to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Hoskins homered to left (399 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Turang hit sacrifice fly to right, Frelick scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −11 | MIN: Chris Paddack (no track record yet) · MIL: Joe Ross (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +21 Elo | MIL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 2.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.810th of 30 |
| 9th of 182–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.