Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-2
- George KirbyPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Brennan singled to right, Ramírez scored.8–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 4J. Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Giménez scored, Ramírez to third.7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 4Ramírez doubled to right, Kwan scored, Giménez to third.6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 2J. Naylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored, Giménez to third.5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Giménez doubled to right, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Brennan reached on infield single to second, Ramírez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1J. Naylor grounded out to first, Giménez scored, Ramírez to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Ramírez doubled to right, Kwan scored, Giménez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML CLE +130 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- CLE +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +12 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 306.3 | Runs scored | 2.826th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 3.811th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+3.3 | Margin | −1.020th of 30 |
| 6th of 184–2 | Road vs home | 3–37th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–1 | 0–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 0–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–1–1 | 2–3–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1–1 | 2–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–4 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.