Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- DL HallPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urías homered to left center (385 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to left, Contreras scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Chourio homered to left center (397 feet), Turang scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 8Polanco homered to right center (418 feet).4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Garver singled to left, Polanco scored, Haniger to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Polanco grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Crawford scored, Rodríguez out at second.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Rodríguez singled to center, Taylor scored, Crawford to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML SEA +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −14 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: DL Hall: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +37 Elo | MIL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +0.713th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–7 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–7 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3–1 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–4 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.