Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Haniger homered to left (359 feet), Rodríguez scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 7Canzone homered to left center (399 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Springer singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Kiner-Falefa doubled to right, Biggio scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Bichette homered to left center (431 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Springer singled to center, Varsho scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML SEA -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −2 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 3.723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.019th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −1.323rd of 30 |
| 17th of 284–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 28 |
| 25th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–9 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5–1 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–4 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.