Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to right (367 feet).2–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 8Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Varsho scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 8Crawford homered to right (404 feet).1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Kiermaier scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Schneider singled to center, Bichette scored on error and Guerrero Jr. scored, Schneider safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Rodríguez, Turner safe at third on error.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Kirk singled to left, Turner scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML SEA +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +13 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +30 Elo | TOR 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.623rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.324th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −1.724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.