Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to left (376 feet), Merrill scored.8–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 6Bogaerts homered to left center (378 feet), Merrill scored.8–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 6Campusano grounded out to second, Kim scored.8–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 28–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 6Kim tripled to right, Machado scored and Profar scored.8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Cronenworth homered to right (419 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.8–2
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 38–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 28–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 18–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 4Swanson tripled to center, Suzuki scored and Morel scored.8–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Morel doubled to left, Happ scored, Suzuki to third.6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Amaya scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Bellinger singled to right, Amaya scored and Happ scored, Bellinger to second, Suzuki to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Happ singled to right, Hoerner scored and Tauchman scored, Amaya to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML CHC +115 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- SD: Elo 49.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +4 Elo | CHC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 5.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.021st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–418th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–3 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–3 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.