Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani doubled to center, Betts scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 6Bellinger homered to right (372 feet).0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Suzuki scored, Morel out at second.0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Happ scored on error, Morel safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rojas, Suzuki safe at third on error.0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 3Tauchman doubled to left, Hoerner scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to left, Tauchman scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Busch doubled to center, Happ scored, Swanson scored and Morel scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / CHC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 46.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +11 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 306.2 | Runs scored | 6.33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.121st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.111th of 30 |
| 15th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | — | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–4 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.