Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Padres- Eguy RosarioBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rosario homered to left (395 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Morel homered to left center (431 feet), Happ scored, Suzuki scored and Bellinger scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Gomes homered to center (410 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 56%
- ML CHC +120 / SD -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- SD: Elo 53.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -128
- CHC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | CHC: Ben Brown (no track record yet) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +24 Elo | SD 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.6 | Runs scored | 5.311th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 4–412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–3 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 6–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–4 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.