Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to left, Merrill scored, Rosario to third.2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 7Azocar singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Cronenworth to second.2–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 7Cronenworth singled to left, Bogaerts scored, Tatis Jr. to third.2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Profar homered to right (367 feet), Machado scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Cronenworth homered to right (381 feet).2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Campusano grounded out to shortstop, Kim scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Profar doubled to center, Machado scored, Profar out stretching at third.2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Busch homered to right center (405 feet), Morel scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Merrill grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kim scored, Campusano out at second.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Campusano singled to left, Profar scored, Kim to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML CHC +130 / SD -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- SD: Elo 53.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -140
- CHC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −4 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +23 Elo | SD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.5 | Runs scored | 5.011th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 4–516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–3 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–4 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.