Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Haniger singled to center, Crawford scored and France scored.6–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 10France doubled to left, Canzone scored, Crawford to third.4–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 10Raleigh homered to right center (376 feet), Raley scored.3–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (459 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Crawford singled to right, Moore scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML SEA +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +24 Elo | TOR 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −1.022nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–10 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5–2 | 6–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–5 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.