Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Hoerner singled to right, Madrigal scored, Cooper to second, Busch to third.3–2
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Hoerner scored on Ginkel wild pitch, Tauchman to third on wild pitch by Ginkel.2–2
- 9Hoerner scored on Ginkel wild pitch, Tauchman to third on wild pitch by Ginkel.2–2
- 8Carroll singled to right, Grichuk scored, Marte to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2McCarthy singled to center, Walker scored, Moreno to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Busch homered to center (419 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML CHC +130 / ARI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -140
- CHC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 5.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +7 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +10 Elo | ARI 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.64th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.36th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 6–47th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–5 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 1–6 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.