Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Polanco homered to right center (399 feet), Crawford scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Busch homered to right center (437 feet), Swanson scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Bellinger reached on infield single to pitcher, Suzuki scored on throwing error by pitcher Castillo.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML CHC +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- CHC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +14 Elo | SEA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.128th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.527th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–5 | Road vs home | 4–517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–5 | 4–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 5–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–2 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.