Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Luis UriasBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Amaya homered to left center (382 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 7Busch homered to right (375 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Suzuki homered to left center (383 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Urías doubled to left, Haniger scored, Polanco to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to center, Swanson scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML CHC -140 / SEA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -128
- SEA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −23 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +24 Elo | CHC 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.425th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 4–410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–5 | 4–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 5–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.