St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-4
- Miles MikolasPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Marte scored on Pallante wild pitch, Carroll to third.0–5
- 5Marte scored on Pallante wild pitch, Carroll to third on wild pitch by Pallante.0–5
- 5Carroll singled to right, Barnhart scored and McCarthy scored, Marte to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5McCarthy doubled to right, Pederson scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Peterson hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML STL +120 / ARI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +59 Elo | ARI 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.65th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.513th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.18th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 5–49th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–5 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8–2 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–4 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.