Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting4-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Grichuk doubled to center, Walker scored.11–12
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–12
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 111–12
- 9Marte homered to right center (410 feet).11–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–10
- 8Pederson hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.11–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 211–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–9
- 7Alexander doubled to center, Suárez scored.11–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 311–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 211–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 111–8
- 7Happ homered to left (348 feet), Swanson scored, Cooper scored and Busch scored.11–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 7Cooper singled to center, Hoerner scored, Swanson to third.7–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 7Morel hit sacrifice fly to right, Tauchman scored, Hoerner to third.6–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 5Alexander singled to right, Pederson scored.5–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 5Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 5Pederson walked, Gurriel Jr. scored on Little wild pitch, Walker to third.5–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 45–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML CHC +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −12 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +16 Elo | ARI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.47th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–59th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–5 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–6 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.