Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- A.J. PukPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gordon singled to left, Bell scored and Lopez scored.3–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 5Tauchman singled to right, Swanson scored, Happ to third.1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 4De La Cruz homered to center (380 feet).1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 3Amaya doubled to center, Madrigal scored and Swanson scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Madrigal grounded into fielder's choice to third, Morel scored, Cooper out at second, Swanson to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Cooper singled to center, Bellinger scored, Swanson to second, Morel to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Hoerner doubled to left, Madrigal scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Swanson doubled to center, Wisdom scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Bellinger singled to right, Hoerner scored, Wisdom to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML MIA +145 / CHC -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CHC -154
- MIA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +1 | MIA: A.J. Puk: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +75 Elo | CHC 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.64th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 5–11st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–14 | 13–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–2 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.