San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chapman doubled to right, Lee scored, Soler to third.3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Ahmed grounded into double play, second to first, Estrada scored, Bailey out at second.2–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6De La Cruz homered to right (363 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Estrada doubled to left, Soler scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML SF -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +24 Elo | MIA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.828th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 2–1029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 5–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–4 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.