Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Cooper reached on infield single to shortstop, Busch scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Busch singled to left, Hoerner scored and Morel scored, Busch to second.3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Canario homered to left (416 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Bell homered to center (405 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Anderson scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Anderson doubled to left, Bell scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Bellinger homered to right center (378 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML MIA +180 / CHC -222
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.6%, market 65.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -193
- MIA +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +21 | MIA: Roddery Munoz (no track record yet) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +82 Elo | CHC 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 65.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.56th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 6–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–15 | 14–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–3 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.