Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Winker hit sacrifice fly to left, Abrams scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Dubón singled to right, McCormick scored, Dubón thrown out at second.5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Adams homered to center (402 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5McCormick hit sacrifice fly to right, Tucker scored, Diaz to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Vargas singled to right, Adams scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2McCormick singled to right, Peña scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Peña doubled to center, Diaz scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Diaz doubled to left, Tucker scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML HOU -155 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +6 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–13 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10–2 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.