Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4
- Landon KnackPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 1Meneses hit sacrifice fly to center, Winker scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Abrams homered to right center (392 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML WSH +185 / LAD -227
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -198
- WSH +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +2 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Landon Knack (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +97 Elo | LAD 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.38th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.712th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 8–43rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–7 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 12–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–5 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.