Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting5-5, 2 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts singled to right, Rojas scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7T. Hernández reached on infield single to third, Betts scored, Freeman to second.2–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5E. Hernández homered to center (431 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Winker homered to right center (429 feet), Young scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Betts doubled to left, Rojas scored, Barnes to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Barnes singled to center, Pages scored, Rojas to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1T. Hernández grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Betts scored, Freeman out at second, Ohtani to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML WSH +225 / LAD -278
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.2%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -239
- WSH +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 5.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +2 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Kyle Hurt (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +102 Elo | LAD 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 70.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.39th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.513th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 7–46th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–6 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 12–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–4 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.