Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Julien homered to left (376 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Muncy homered to center (400 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Buxton singled to left, Julien scored, Correa to second.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Julien homered to left (367 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1T. Hernández doubled to right, Betts scored, Ohtani to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -170 / MIN +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -154
- MIN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −1 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +21 Elo | LAD 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 2.929th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–7 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4–1 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–1 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.