Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- David FryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 2Fry homered to left center (424 feet), Freeman scored and Brennan scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Kirilloff tripled to right, Correa scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML CLE +150 / MIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- CLE +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +1 | CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +51 Elo | MIN 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 306.3 | Runs scored | 3.325th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.5 | Runs allowed | 3.810th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.8 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–2 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–1 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 7–1 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2–1 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–6 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.