Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-5
- Tanner BibeePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castro scored on Gaddis wild pitch, Vázquez to third, Kirilloff to second.4–2
- 7Castro scored on Gaddis wild pitch, Kirilloff to second on wild pitch by Gaddis, Vázquez to third on wild pitch by Gaddis.4–2
- 6Brennan scored, Rocchio safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Correa, Bo Naylor to second, Laureano out at home in rundown.4–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Julien homered to left (368 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Brennan hit sacrifice fly to left, J. Naylor scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Freeman singled to right, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Giménez to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML CLE +145 / MIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -154
- CLE +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.0 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +9 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 306.6 | Runs scored | 3.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 3.811th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+4.0 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–1 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–6 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.