Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Manuel MargotBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ohtani homered to left center (362 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7Outman homered to right (353 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Smith singled to right, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Margot homered to left center (416 feet), Martin scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Betts scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML LAD -140 / MIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -128
- MIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −9 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.718th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3–1 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 2–1 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.