Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 14 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirilloff homered to right center (382 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Correa homered to center (442 feet).6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Jeffers homered to left center (393 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 5Smith homered to right (363 feet), Betts scored and Freeman scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Outman homered to center (422 feet), Smith scored and T. Hernández scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -185 / MIN +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- MIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −3 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +34 Elo | LAD 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 2.929th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.920th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4–1 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–1 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.