San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Merrill singled to left, Azocar scored.8–7
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 7Tatis Jr. homered to center (413 feet), Wade scored.7–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 7Bogaerts grounded out to third, Merrill scored, Wade to second.5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Cronenworth homered to right center (372 feet).4–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 3T. Hernández homered to right (370 feet), Freeman scored.3–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 2Betts homered to left center (409 feet), Outman scored and Lux scored.3–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Muncy homered to right (349 feet).3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Kim homered to left (396 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Ohtani homered to center (403 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Machado homered to left center (390 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML SD +165 / LAD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -177
- SD +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −15 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +23 Elo | LAD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.49th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301–2 | Road vs home | 6–11st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7–1 | 9–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–10 LAD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.