Washington Nationals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Toro singled to left, Langeliers scored and Noda scored, Hernaiz to third.6–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 6Hernaiz walked, Butler scored, Noda to second, Langeliers to third.6–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 46–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 6Nevin scored on Law wild pitch, Butler to second on wild pitch by Law.6–4
- 6Nevin scored on Law wild pitch, Butler to second on wild pitch by Law.6–4
- 6Butler singled to right, Bleday scored, Nevin to third.6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Nevin singled to right, Toro scored, Bleday to third.6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 6Thomas singled to left, Meneses scored, Winker to second.6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Meneses singled to center, Lipscomb scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Langeliers singled to center, Butler scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Thomas homered to left center (429 feet).4–0
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Young doubled to right, Adams scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 57%
- ML WSH +125 / OAK -150
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- OAK: Elo 47.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- OAK -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Alex Wood: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +17 Elo | WSH 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 2.729th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 2–727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–6 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–1 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.