Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3
- Jon GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 2Brown homered to right (378 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 64%
- ML OAK +165 / TEX -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 68.4%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -177
- OAK +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +134 Elo | TEX 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 5–412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 5–10 TEX in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.