Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Carson KellyBatting2-3
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rooker singled to center, Gelof scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Brown singled to right, Gelof scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Rooker homered to left (409 feet), Gelof scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML OAK +125 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- DET: Elo 62.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- OAK +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +88 Elo | DET 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.4 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 28th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 2.41st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−3.8 | Margin | +1.610th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | — | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.