Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urshela doubled to right, Torkelson scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 7Allen grounded out to second, Bleday scored, Noda to third.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Toro homered to left (396 feet).3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Canha homered to left (414 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Rooker homered to left (355 feet), Gelof scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Greene singled to left, Torkelson scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Torkelson doubled to left, Ibáñez scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Vierling homered to left (358 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 69%
- ML OAK +205 / DET -250
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- DET: Elo 66.4%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -218
- OAK +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 2.6 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +21 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +118 Elo | DET 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| OAK | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.1 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 25th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 2.22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−4.1 | Margin | +1.79th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | — | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 4–3 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.