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Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Astros

3-7

3–1

at

Home

Rangers

6-3

HOU 49%TEX 51%

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Globe Life Field · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.

TEX75%50%75%HOUStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Astros
  • Yordan AlvarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rangers
  • Justin FoscueBatting1-1, 1 RBI
  • Dane DunningPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Foscue singled to center, García scored.3–1
  • 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
  • 9Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
  • 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
  • 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
  • 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
  • 3Alvarez homered to right (378 feet), Meyers scored and Altuve scored.3–0
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 51%

Toss-upMiss
HOU 49%TEX 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TEX 51%
ML HOU -105 / TEX -115
Pre-line forecast
TEX 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TEX 57%
Ratings vs. market
+5.5 pts
TEX: Elo 56.5%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
TEX -104
HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
HOU 5.2 – 5.3 TEX
Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUTEXWhy
Team rating15181546Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+8+8HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTEX +46 EloTEX 56.5%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 51.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTEX 50.1%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTEX 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

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Houston Astros and Texas Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatTEX
22nd of 303.8Runs scored6.52nd of 30
14th of 304.4Runs allowed3.45th of 30
17th of 30−0.7Margin+3.13rd of 30
28th of 300–2Road vs home4–14th of 27

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AstrosRangers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonHOUTEX
Run line2–75–3
Last 102–75–3
Favorite2–62–2
Underdog0–13–1
Overs–unders2–6–14–4
Overs–unders, last 102–6–14–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

HOU 12–10 TEX in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 22.