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Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Astros

2-7

2–7

at

Home

Rangers

6-2

HOU 50%TEX 50%

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Globe Life Field

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.

TEX75%50%75%HOUStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Astros
  • Jose AltuveBatting3-5
  • J.P. FrancePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers
  • Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 RBI
  • Jon GrayPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 8García singled to right, Langford scored.2–7
  • 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
  • 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
  • 8Seager scored, Langford to third on Pressly wild pitch.2–6
  • 8Seager scored on Pressly wild pitch, Langford to third on wild pitch by Pressly.2–6
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
  • 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
  • 8Langford doubled to right, Semien scored, Seager to third.2–5
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
  • 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
  • 8Seager singled to right, Taveras scored, Semien to second.2–4
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
  • 6Semien singled to left, Taveras scored.2–3
  • 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
  • 6Pitch 6 : Ball 32–3
  • 6Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
  • 6Pitch 4 : Ball 12–2
  • 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
  • 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
  • 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
  • 4Taveras doubled to left, Walsh scored, Taveras to third.2–2
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
  • 3Alvarez scored and Tucker scored, Bregman safe at third, Y. Diaz safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Seager.2–1
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
  • 2Heim singled to right, Carter scored.0–1
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
  • 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 50%

Toss-upHit
HOU 50%TEX 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TEX 50%
ML HOU -110 / TEX -110
Pre-line forecast
TEX 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TEX 55%
Ratings vs. market
+5.5 pts
TEX: Elo 55.5%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
TEX -100
HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
HOU 5.0 – 5.0 TEX
Margin from the forecast, posted total 10

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUTEXWhy
Team rating15201543Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers0−3HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTEX +38 EloTEX 55.5%
Market-implied ratingsTEX 50.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTEX 51.5%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTEX 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

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Houston Astros and Texas Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatTEX
20th of 304.0Runs scored6.42nd of 30
13th of 304.1Runs allowed3.67th of 30
16th of 30−0.1Margin+2.93rd of 30
24th of 300–1Road vs home3–17th of 27

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AstrosRangers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonHOUTEX
Run line2–64–3
Last 102–64–3
Favorite2–61–2
Underdog—3–1
Overs–unders2–5–14–3
Overs–unders, last 102–5–14–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

HOU 12–9 TEX in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 21.