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Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast

FinalApple TV

Away

Astros

2-6

2–10

at

Home

Rangers

5-2

HOU 56%TEX 44%

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Globe Life Field · Apple TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.

TEX75%50%75%HOUStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Astros
  • Jake MeyersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Hunter BrownPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rangers
  • Marcus SemienBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Cody BradfordPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Meyers homered to right center (360 feet), Peña scored.2–10
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–10
  • 6Semien homered to left center (395 feet), Heim scored and Smith scored.0–10
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–10
  • 5García singled to left, Semien scored.0–7
  • 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
  • 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
  • 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
  • 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
  • 4Smith doubled to right, Walsh scored, Heim to third.0–6
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
  • 2García homered to right center (375 feet), Seager scored and Langford scored.0–5
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
  • 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
  • 2Langford reached on infield single to second, Semien scored, Seager to third.0–2
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
  • 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
  • 2Seager doubled to left, Smith scored, Semien to third.0–1
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Astros 56%

LeanMiss
HOU 56%TEX 44%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
HOU 56%
ML HOU -140 / TEX +120
Pre-line forecast
HOU 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU 46%
Ratings vs. market
−10.2 pts
HOU: Elo 46.0%, market 56.2%
Fair odds
HOU -128
TEX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
HOU 5.3 – 4.7 TEX
Margin from the forecast, posted total 10

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUTEXWhy
Team rating15231540Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−9−17HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTEX +28 EloTEX 54.0%
Market-implied ratingsTEX 51.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTEX 51.6%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastHOU 56.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).

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Houston Astros and Texas Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatTEX
15th of 304.3Runs scored5.88th of 30
5th of 303.3Runs allowed3.810th of 30
12th of 30+1.0Margin+2.07th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AstrosRangers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonHOUTEX
Run line2–53–3
Last 102–53–3
Favorite2–51–2
Underdog—2–1
Overs–unders1–5–13–3
Overs–unders, last 101–5–13–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

HOU 12–8 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 20.