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Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Astros

4-7

10–5

at

Home

Rangers

6-4

HOU 46%TEX 54%

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Globe Life Field

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.

TEX75%50%75%HOUStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Astros
  • Yordan AlvarezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Seth MartinezPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rangers
  • Corey SeagerBatting3-5
  • Jose UrenaPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 5Caratini homered to right center (395 feet), J. Abreu scored and Dubón scored.10–5
  • 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
  • 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
  • 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
  • 4Tucker singled to center, Altuve scored and Alvarez scored.7–5
  • 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
  • 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
  • 4Alvarez doubled to right, J. Abreu scored, Altuve to third.5–5
  • 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
  • 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
  • 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
  • 2Alvarez homered to right (431 feet), Caratini scored.4–5
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
  • 1Walsh singled to left, Carter scored and García scored, Smith to second.2–5
  • 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
  • 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
  • 1Smith hit by pitch, Langford scored, Carter to second, García to third.2–3
  • 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
  • 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
  • 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
  • 1Carter walked, Seager scored, García to second, Langford to third.2–2
  • 1Pitch 6 : Ball 42–2
  • 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
  • 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
  • 1Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 12–1
  • 1Langford singled to center, Semien scored, Seager to second.2–1
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
  • 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
  • 1Peña grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Tucker scored, McCormick out at second, Bregman to third.2–0
  • 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
  • 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
  • 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 54%

Toss-upMiss
HOU 46%TEX 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TEX 54%
ML HOU +110 / TEX -130
Pre-line forecast
TEX 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TEX 55%
Ratings vs. market
+0.6 pts
TEX: Elo 54.9%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
TEX -119
HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
HOU 4.8 – 5.2 TEX
Margin from the forecast, posted total 10

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUTEXWhy
Team rating15191544Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−1−9HOU: Blair Henley (no track record yet) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTEX +34 EloTEX 54.9%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 50.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTEX 50.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTEX 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Houston Astros and Texas Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatTEX
22nd of 303.7Runs scored5.95th of 30
10th of 304.1Runs allowed3.34th of 30
16th of 30−0.4Margin+2.64th of 30
19th of 301–2Road vs home4–29th of 29

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AstrosRangers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonHOUTEX
Run line3–75–4
Last 103–75–4
Favorite2–62–3
Underdog1–13–1
Overs–unders2–7–14–5
Overs–unders, last 102–7–14–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

HOU 13–10 TEX in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 23.