Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Brown singled to right, Gelof scored, Butler to third.7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Greene homered to right center (397 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Toro reached on infield single to third, Noda scored, Allen to second.6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Gelof homered to left center (402 feet), Noda scored and Toro scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Bleday singled to center, Gelof scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Gelof tripled to left, Toro scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML OAK +165 / DET -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- DET: Elo 60.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -177
- OAK +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −15 | OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +72 Elo | DET 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.6 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 2.64th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.9 | Margin | +0.913th of 30 |
| 13th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 5–4 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.