Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting3-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langeliers homered to left center (405 feet), Hernaiz scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Carter homered to right center (397 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Langeliers homered to center (427 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Heim homered to left center (393 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Langeliers homered to left center (404 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Smith singled to right, Semien scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 64%
- ML OAK +170 / TEX -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 69.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TEX -181
- OAK +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 5.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +15 | OAK: Alex Wood: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +143 Elo | TEX 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.86th of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 4–311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 4–9 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.