Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gelof homered to right center (396 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 31–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4García singled to right, Seager scored and Semien scored, Carter to third.1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Semien doubled to left, Walsh scored, Jankowski to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Heim singled to left, García scored and Smith scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Smith singled to right, Carter scored, García to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Nevin singled to right, Toro scored, Davis to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 62%
- ML OAK +155 / TEX -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 64.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -166
- OAK +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −10 | OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +103 Elo | TEX 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 5.57th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.56th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 4–412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–4 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 5–9 TEX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.