Washington Nationals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Butler singled to left, Schuemann scored, Langeliers to second.1–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 9Winker homered to right center (387 feet).1–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Butler homered to right center (445 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 55%
- ML WSH +115 / OAK -135
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- OAK: Elo 49.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- OAK -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +9 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +1 Elo | WSH 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 2.828th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.2 | Margin | −1.726th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–6 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–0 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.