Washington Nationals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Athletics- Abraham ToroBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young doubled to left, Lipscomb scored, Adams to third.3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Toro doubled to left, Allen scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6L. García Jr. doubled to center, Winker scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Abrams tripled to right, Young scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML WSH -135 / OAK +115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- OAK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +10 Elo | WSH 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 2.829th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −1.526th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 2–625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–6 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–1 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.