San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Profar doubled to center, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth scored and Tatis Jr. scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Merrill reached on infield single to shortstop, Profar scored on error, Merrill safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Betts.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Campusano grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Machado scored, Kim out at second, Profar to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Muncy homered to right (382 feet), Smith scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Smith singled to center, Freeman scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Machado homered to center (418 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML SD +135 / LAD -159
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -144
- SD +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −3 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +59 Elo | LAD 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.55th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.910th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 7–23rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8–1 | 10–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–11 LAD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.