San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Muncy hit sacrifice fly to left, T. Hernández scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Wade singled to right, Kim scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to center, Lux scored, Betts to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Betts singled to right, E. Hernández scored, Lux to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Lux singled to right, Muncy scored, E. Hernández to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Tatis Jr. doubled to center, Higashioka scored, Merrill to third.1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Betts singled to left, Outman scored, Betts to second, Lux to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML SD +180 / LAD -238
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.8%, market 66.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- SD +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −25 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +19 Elo | LAD 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.57th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.818th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.811th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 6–23rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7–1 | 10–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–10 LAD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.