Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy singled to right, T. Hernández scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Smith grounded out to third, Ohtani scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5L. García Jr. homered to left center (376 feet), Winker scored and Gallo scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Gallo doubled to right, Winker scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Abrams homered to right center (404 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Taylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Muncy scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Abrams scored on Glasnow wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 77%
- ML WSH +325 / LAD -426
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.4%, market 77.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -344
- WSH +344 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 5.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +23 | WSH: Mitchell Parker (no track record yet) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 1.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +110 Elo | LAD 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 77.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.38th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.712th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–5 | Road vs home | 7–34th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–6 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 11–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–4 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.