Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arcia singled to left, Harris II scored, Olson to second.5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Arcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Riley scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Harris II scored, Olson safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Abreu. Riley safe at third.3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Dubón homered to left center (374 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Tucker doubled to right, Alvarez scored, Bregman to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Bregman singled to left, Altuve scored, Alvarez to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Acuña Jr. homered to center (422 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Ozuna homered to left center (432 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Alvarez homered to left center (347 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML ATL -130 / HOU +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +38 Elo | ATL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.4 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.225th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Road vs home | 4–822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 6–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5–1 | 8–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–3 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.