Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Peña singled to right, Tucker scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Diaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Alvarez scored, Tucker to third.2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Tucker doubled to left, Kessinger scored and Altuve scored, Alvarez to third.2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Altuve doubled to left, J. Abreu scored and Meyers scored, Kessinger to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Caratini singled to right, Singleton scored, Meyers to second, J. Abreu to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Tucker doubled to center, Altuve scored, Alvarez to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Dubón grounded out to shortstop, J. Abreu scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Langford singled to right, García scored, Langford thrown out at second, Smith to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Smith singled to left, Carter scored, García to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 56%
- ML TEX +120 / HOU -140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -128
- TEX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +14 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.728th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.526th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 2–624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–7 | 4–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 6–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–14 HOU in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 25.
- Apr 12TEX 12 @ HOU 8Picked HOU 53%Miss
- Apr 8HOU 10 @ TEX 5Picked TEX 54%Miss
- Apr 7HOU 3 @ TEX 1Picked TEX 51%Miss
- Apr 6HOU 2 @ TEX 7Picked TEX 50%Hit
- Apr 5HOU 2 @ TEX 10Picked HOU 56%Miss
- Oct 23TEX 11 @ HOU 4PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Oct 22TEX 9 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Oct 20HOU 5 @ TEX 4PlayoffsPicked TEX 53%Miss