Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth MartinezPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Witt Jr. homered to right center (382 feet), Loftin scored and Isbel scored.3–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 6Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.3–10
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–10
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 6Alvarez walked, Caratini scored, Altuve to second, Dubón to third.3–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 43–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 6Dubón singled to right, Peña scored, Caratini to third.2–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 4Diaz homered to left center (432 feet).1–9
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–9
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–9
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 1Witt Jr. homered to right (391 feet), Garcia scored.0–9
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–9
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 1Garcia singled to center, Loftin scored and Fermin scored.0–7
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Loftin singled to center, Melendez scored and Velázquez scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Velázquez singled to right, Pasquantino scored, Velázquez to second, Melendez to third.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML HOU -125 / KC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +5 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +11 Elo | HOU 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.912th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 2.51st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +2.42nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 302–4 | Road vs home | 7–23rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–9 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8–1 | 4–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–7 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 8.